• My Listings
Expert Circle
  • Expert Panels
    Expert Panel: What is one change you recommend making to enhance culture and productivity

    Expert Panel: What is one change you recommend making to enhance culture and productivity

    Expert Panel: Hybrid working – What is the best model to move forward, how should time be split between home and office?

    Expert Panel: Hybrid working – What is the best model to move forward, how should time be split between home and office?

    Expert Panel: How to develop a content strategy

    Expert Panel: How to develop a content strategy

    Expert Panel: How to Reach Out to a Recruiter

    Expert Panel: How to Reach Out to a Recruiter

  • Get Featured
    Contribute to the panel: How do you deal with the negativity without letting it drag you down as the leader?

    Contribute to the panel: How do you deal with the negativity without letting it drag you down as the leader?

    Contribute to the panel: What are the benefits of coaching and mentoring?

    Contribute to the panel: What are the benefits of coaching and mentoring?

    Expert Panel

    Contribute to the Expert Panel: What are the important factors to consider before starting a business?

    Contribute to the panel: How do you market to two different audiences?

    Contribute to the panel: How do you market to two different audiences?

    Contribute to the Expert Panel: What is one change you recommend making to enhance culture and productivity?

    Contribute to the Expert Panel: What is one change you recommend making to enhance culture and productivity?

    Contribute to the Expert Panel: Hybrid working – What is the best model to move forward, how should time be split between home and office?

    Contribute to the Expert Panel: Hybrid working – What is the best model to move forward, how should time be split between home and office?

  • Join Expert Circle
  • Media Pack
    • Branded Content
No Result
View All Result
Expert Circle
No Result
View All Result
Home Book Club

The Black Swan – book review

by James Chaplin
June 25, 2021
in Book Club
Reading Time: 3 mins read
0
The Black Swan – book review
959
SHARES
3.3k
VIEWS
Share on LinkedinShare on Twitter

The central tenet of ‘The Black Swan’ is that periodically events will occur, which are so extreme as to irreversibly change the equilibrium around us, at the same time, they happen so infrequently that it is impossible to predict when or even if, they will happen. None the less, once they happen, it is obvious that they would have. As an example, the current global pandemic would be considered a black swan event.

The insights

The insights offered are both profound and relevant regardless of your circumstance, especially when he talks about how we measure and manage risk. As an example, he tells the story of the turkey before thanksgiving. Every day, the turkey is fed well. Day after day it is looked after. Then one day it is killed and eaten. In terms of the past, there was nothing that happened that could indicate to this turkey this would happen. Yet it did and was eminently predictable. Such is the paradox of the black swan and the fallibility of relying on past trends to predict the future.

Underpinning the book

With that, underpinning the book is the notion of statistical unpredictability and how we are fooled into thinking there is causality when in fact certain events are random, in part due to narrative fallacy. The human condition is such that we instinctively always want to explain why something happened, equally beware of this process as inevitably it leads to a disconnect between our perception and the reality.

This feeds into our natural propensity to underestimate the possibility of outliers. In effect given we are post rationalising events that we didn’t foresee ahead of time, it makes sense that we naturally struggle to forecast accurately. With that, he gives the example of a study performed by the psychologist Philip Tetlock.

“Tetlock studied the business of political and economic experts. He asked various specialists to judge the likelihood of a number of political, economic and military events occurring within a specific time frame (about five years ahead.) The outcomes represented a total of about twenty-seven thousand predictions, involving close to three hundred specialists. The study revealed that experts error rates were many times what they had estimated. Also interestingly, those with big reputations were worse predictors than those who had none.”

Taleb is a master storyteller, who interweaves between his personal experiences, through using case studies along with hypothetical examples and it is in the second half of the book, he delivers for me his most powerful insights. For example, he looks to prove statistically how in business, the winner takes all the spoils. That you only need to be 1% better than the competition in every way, and over time you will win a disproportionately large market share. Fascinating and backed up by the case studies he then showcases.

He concludes by arguing that the way forwards is sceptical empiricism. So, accept that it is OK not to know the answer and if in doubt, keep looking for the data that may give more insight. Black swan events are the dominant source of randomness, so whilst we cannot predict what the next one maybe, we should accept their inevitability. Only by doing this can we prepare for them properly and mitigate their impact, making them ‘grey swans.’ In this context, we can think about climate change and what that will mean if unaddressed as an example of a grey swan. Overall this book is thoroughly thought-provoking and well worth the read. One of my all-time favourites.

Share67Tweet240Share384SendShareSend

James Chaplin

Related Posts

Shoe Dog by Phil Knight – book review
Book Club

Shoe Dog by Phil Knight – book review

May 11, 2021
14.1k
Start with why – book review
Book Club

Start with why – book review

May 3, 2021
13.1k
Getting Past No – book review
Book Club

Getting Past No – book review

April 23, 2021
18.2k
The Making of a Manager – Book Review
Book Club

The Making of a Manager – Book Review

April 3, 2021
14.6k
Good Strategy, Bad Strategy – book review
Book Club

Good Strategy, Bad Strategy – book review

April 2, 2021
15.4k
The Culture Map – Decoding how people think, lead, and get things done across cultures – Book Review
Book Club

The Culture Map – Decoding how people think, lead, and get things done across cultures – Book Review

March 27, 2021
8.2k
Art of War – book review
Book Club

Art of War – book review

March 25, 2021
7.4k
Never split the difference – Book Review
Book Club

Never split the difference – Book Review

March 19, 2021
7.8k
The Great CEO within – book review
Book Club

The Great CEO within – book review

March 18, 2021
6.3k
The One Minute Manager – book review
Book Club

The One Minute Manager – book review

March 12, 2021
9.1k
Next Post
Influence – The Stuff of Winners

Influence - The Stuff of Winners

SPRINT – book review

SPRINT - book review

person using black laptop computer on brown wooden table

Remote Working – Three Ingredients

Call to Action

Advertisement

Black Friday Week 2021 v2

Categories

  • Book Club (24)
  • Business Management (28)
    • Accounting (1)
    • Careers and Education (2)
    • HR & Recruitment (6)
    • Startup (6)
  • Current Affairs (10)
    • Notes From Ukraine (10)
  • Expert Panel (10)
  • Get Featured (9)
  • Leadership (32)
    • Motivational (12)
  • Lifestyle (9)
  • Marketing (57)
    • Blogging (15)
    • Design (1)
    • Digital Marketing (22)
    • Email Marketing (1)
    • Networking (4)
    • Podcast (2)
  • Sales (4)
    • Objection Handling (1)
  • Uncategorized (1)

An Award-winning Platform

Top categories on Expert Circle

  • Book Club
  • Business Management
  • Leadership
  • Marketing & Sales

Opportunities on Expert Circle

  • Branded Content
  • Promote Your Website
  • Media Pack
  • Get Featured
  • Expert Panels
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy Policy

© 2021 Expert Circle

No Result
View All Result
  • All posts by Experts
  • Get Featured
  • Expert Panels
  • Promote Your Website
  • Branded Content
  • Media Pack

© 2021 Expert Circle

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. Visit our Privacy and Cookie Policy.